2023 NBA Finals Preview and Prediction
An NBA Finals matchup between the play-in 8 seed Miami Heat and the season-long 1 seed Denver Nuggets comes with questions of underdog potential, perseverance, and just how damn good Nikola Jokic is. And, after a couple of days of gathering my thoughts and researching past games between these teams, I have formulated my prediction:
The Denver Nuggets will outlast the Miami Heat in five games, and lift their first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history.
The Nuggets are coming into these finals as -400 favorites (80% chance to win) but even as the heaviest favorites since the record-breaking 2017 Warriors, it doesn’t seem too crazy to see this scrappy Miami Heat team steal four games from Denver. However, I do see Denver winning this series so let me jump straight into my reasoning.
Jimmy Butler vs. Aaron Gordon Matchup
Watching Playoff Jimmy torment NBA fanbases in these playoffs has honestly been a pleasure. However, it is undeniable that he has cooled off as the playoffs have progressed. Now, facing a matchup against Aaron Gordon, an elite defensive wing, it will be even more challenging for him to regain his rhythm.
According to Second Spectrum, Butler’s scoring rate against Aaron Gordon as a defender has been a mere 11.4 points per 100 possessions across the last three seasons. However, when facing any other defender, he consistently achieves a scoring rate of 17.9 points or higher. His FG% also takes a similar hit against Gordon.
Even in these playoffs, Gordon has done great work matching up against Kevin Durant and LeBron James in back-to-back series, so I see the Jimmy Butler defensive assignment as a very real issue that Miami will have to adjust to.
Nevertheless, Miami’s offense does not solely rely on a Jimmy Butler masterclass, as demonstrated by the impressive team effort showcased by other role players, notably Caleb Martin, during the Conference Finals. So Denver will need more than just slowing down Jimmy to defeat Miami.
The Jokic Juggernaut
If these playoffs have taught us anything, it is that Nikola Jokic has emerged as the best player in the NBA. The only way to even slightly slow him down is with a focused team defensive effort. However, I find it hard to believe that Miami’s personnel will be able to contain him.
During the conference finals, Miami frequently resorted to a zone defense, which stifled Boston’s offense and made them look like an AAU team, limiting them to a meager 0.9 points per possession. But, when you have a 7-foot floor general like Jokic at the heart of the zone, the entire scheme falls apart. He can easily see over defenders and exploit the space created by off-ball movements, which Denver excels at. This is evident from Denver’s impressive 1.73 points per possession against zone defenses this season.
In these playoffs alone, we’ve seen Jokic match up against two of the best defensive big men of the last decade — Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis. He averaged a 35-point triple-double on Gobert and caused so many matchup problems against Davis that Lakers coach Darvin Ham had to switch Davis off of Jokic after 3 quarters of game 1.
Moreover, from a larger perspective, the entire NBA has been trying to scheme against Jokic for the past three seasons. And, winning two of the last three MVPs (should’ve been a three-peat), has shown that nobody has been able to stop him. I love the Jimmy Butler narrative and I have nothing but respect for this Heat team that has overcome all of the odds to reach the finals once again, but I don’t see how they can handle the Jokic problem.
