2024 NBA Finals Preview and Prediction
The Mavericks and Celtics have embarked on contrasting journeys throughout the season. Boston sailed through the entire regular season and playoffs without really hitting any rough waters, dominating their competition as the best team in the league at every stage. Dallas, on the other hand, started the season near .500 through their first 50 games and only truly came together after making some key acquisitions at the trade deadline.
In this polarizing matchup between two young teams, Boston with everything to prove, and Dallas just entering the realm of contention, I predict that the most storied dynasty in history will reclaim its throne as champions and:
The Boston Celtics will defeat the Dallas Mavericks in six games to hoist their record-breaking 18th Larry O’Brien trophy.
Storylines:
What the Celtics Have on Their Side
With six Conference Final appearances in the last eight years led by the same core duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston has been on the brink of a championship for both of their stars’ entire careers. This 2024 roster though, is easily the best version of the team and one of the best in franchise history.
They’ve had tremendous consistency and depth of talent that Coach Joe Mazzulla has masterfully utilized with variations of 5-out and Horns play calls. The pickup of sharpshooting big man Kristaps Porzingis last summer has unlocked these offensive plays as the shooting, spacing, and cutting ability of any 5-man Celtic lineup leads to high-efficiency pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop opportunities.
This is backed up statistically by Net Rating, which measures a team’s point differential per 100 possessions. These 2024 Celtics are tied for the third-highest Net Rating of any team all time (+11.6) with the 2017 Warriors and just behind the 1996 (+13.4) and 1997 (+12.0) Bulls.
Beyond just the numbers, I am finally comfortable banking on the deep experience of the Celtics roster to pull through. In my 2022 NBA Finals Prediction, I picked the Warriors to win it all heavily because of their experience playing at the highest level for years. On a similar note this year, the 64–18 Celtics are coming in with much more experience than Dallas. Being accustomed to the bright lights has proven vital time and time again, and these Finals will be no different.
Luka Magic
I want it to be on the record that I am a huge Luka fan and that this prediction is not meant to undermine any of the Mavericks’ or Luka’s achievements this season. The way he makes the toughest moves look so fluid while making top-flight NBA defenders look completely helpless against his arsenal of stepbacks, turnarounds, and step-throughs is mesmerizing. Add that to his ability to make any pass on the court and he is entirely unguardable. There is no doubt that the Celtics will throw everything but the kitchen sink at him; and, as crazy as it is, there is also no doubt Luka will be unfazed and still put up historic numbers. For context, he averaged 35, 15, and 12 against the Celtics in two matchups this season.
I expect the Celtics to rotate Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford on Luka, which may not significantly limit him but will prevent any single defender from getting too exhausted. This will be key for the Celtics as Jayson Tatum will need as much help as possible to match the firepower of Doncic and Irving.
The Mavericks’ X-Factors
In the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Mavericks have had significant contributions from their role players and bench unit, consisting of Derrick Lively, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr, Josh Green, and more. However, my main concern lies in the youth and inexperience of each of these role players. The stage of the Finals dwarfs that of any other game these players have encountered. Relying too heavily on inexperienced players may spell trouble for this up-and-coming team, but only time will tell.
Kyrie’s Matchups
If I were to handpick the best defensive matchups for Kyrie Irving from the entire NBA, two of my top five selections would be Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Coincidentally, they form the starting backcourt for the Boston Celtics.
Now similar to Luka there is no stopping Kyrie, but teams have been able to slow him down in the past. A focused effort from White and Holiday will be one of the biggest defensive challenges Kyrie has faced to date. Slowing his production, by even a little bit, will provide the Celtics an opportunity to capitalize and win the series.
